Labour Leadership Election

With voting imminent it still looks to be a straight fight between the Milibands. My guess is Burnham and Balls will urge supporters to go for David over Ed. No matter what Diane Abbott says I think most of her supporters will go for Ed Milband over David.

I have thought Ed would win from the start but I am less sure now. If everyone voting was absolutely clear that David Milband was the Blairite candidate I think his chances would be reduced. But many voting are less than clear what they are voting for. I have heard a Labour party member lay into 'New Labour' about as harshly as one could and then said he would vote for Burnham because he heard him use the word 'socialism'. If Ed Miliband is to win I think the efforts of the big unions who are supporting him will be crucial. If they get the message over that if you want to move the party on whether one sees themselves as Right or Left then a vote for the younger Miliband makes sense. Hopefully, this will nullify the efforts of Cruddas, the Daily Mirror, the high priests of new Labour and the money David Miliband has behind him.

I don't think David Miliband would be a disaster. I think he could well be a decent leader, but my fear is he would be too keen to privatise the public services and carry on some of the reforms that Labour should not have introduced in government such as Academies.

Australian General Election Results

So the results are coming in. Not the greatest result for the ALP. Going to be a very close result in terms of seats and a hung parliament. The internet is a great development for following such events, I spent a few hours yesterday following the ABC's election night coverage which I was greatly interested in. Their coverage is much less 'showy' than in Britain today.

The five likely (ish?) members of the lower house who are not from the two main parties. The Green in Melbourne (their Brighton Pavilion?), the Independent in Denison (the most uncertain about their fate at the time of writing), Tasmania and the three rural independents will obviously be vitally important.

The workings are the AV system should be of real interest to those in the UK who are deciding whether to support the change to the electoral system in the UK. The seat of Denison appears to be a very interesting one to examine where the Independent finishing second might well be better for the Coalition than securing second themselves as they have instructed supporters to give their second preferences to the Independent candidate. I think such a case amply displays why STV is preferable to AV.

Anyway I will be closely following what transpires over the next couple of days.

Australian General Election

Still hoping for an ALP victory.

Been really interesting to follow the last Australian Parliament more closely than I've probably ever followed any other country's political fortunes.

Not so long ago it seemed an ALP landslide was on the cards. Abbott was widely portrayed as someone who would not have a chance as the Liberal Leader but he has done better than most would have expected.

From this distance it is hard to be sure what will happen (I was pretty accurate with regards to the last British election). I expect the ALP to win and Julia Gillard to continue as PM. My one fear (discounting any last minute surprises) is that the swing in marginal seats in New South Wales and Queensland could favour the Coalition parties more than the overall national swing. Polling evidence has suggested that might be the case.

Some problems aside (e.g. problems with home insulation, Rudd's perceived arrogance) I think the ALP do deserve to win not least for avoiding a recession, but I will be very interested to see exactly what does happen.

New Labour figures helping the Tories

How many more Blairites are going to be found helping out the Coalition. I would be interested to know who they would be voting for (in order) in the Labour Leadership election.